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Predictions
3 November 2004 19:20So, GWB has managed another term in office. Last time, once it became apparent that he would take office, I made a series of predictions about what would happen during his term including 9/11, the war with Iraq, and the PATRIOT act/Guantanamo bay issues. It seems like I was correct across the board. Unfortunately, I didn't record them anywhere other than in the memory of my wife. This time I am making more, and I am going to write them down. Enjoy.
RavenDisplayed's Predictions for the Next Four Years:
Domestic Politics and Agendas
1) The Democratic party is going to have to undergo serious soul searching if it wants to remain a force in American politics. It may manage to do this by moving away from the centrist position and over to the left to its old home ground somewhere between the American Socialist party and the European socialists. If it does not it will factionalize and lose large portions of its membership to the Green Party, the American Socialist Party and the Libertarian Party. I'm betting on the later.
2) The neocons currently running the Republicans will see this election as a complete vindication of their policies and a strong mandate to continue with their plans. Of course since they only received about 51% of the popular vote this is a pretty major stretch, but they won't see it as such. Eventually the classical conservatives and the libertarians in the Republican party (particularly the fiscal conservatives) will oppose the neocons (primarily due to events to be discussed in the economics section and later in this section) and may attempt a coup of the Republican party (led by John McCain?) or split to the Libertarian Party and/or a newly revitalized Reform party. This will be much less dramatic than what is going to happen to the Democrats and will probably happen later.
3) Under the direction of John Ashcroft there will be a continued erosion of basic civil rights, most likely something along the lines of a PATRIOT Act II.
4) There is a good chance for Roe v. Wade to be overturned, as their is now the majority in the House and the Senate to slightly change the definition that RvW hangs on.
5) I don't expect an anti gay marriage amendment to happen, but there will be a continuation of other subtle attacks on gay rights.
6) Remember that thing called "Separation of Church and State"? Kiss it goodbye. Fuck you John Ashcroft, fuck you very much. I hope you get hit by an orbital cow launcher.
7) Climate change will be increasingly noticeable and alarming, but there will be nothing more than some slight lip service to real environmental policy change. In the end this will be disastrous but probably not for a couple of decades.
8) ANWR will be opened up due to pressure from high oil prices (see economics), but won't help much, if at all, since there just isn't that much oil there.
Foreign Relations
1) Osama bin Laden and Al-Queda will continue their economic guerilla war against the US. OBL will still not be caught and low scale terrorist actions against the US and US forces abroad will increase costing us big.
2) Iraq - I see two possibilities. The first is that the US military will leave Iraq ASAP after the January elections, in preparations for (3). The more likely scenario is that they will continue to have a strong presence in the oil producing regions and protecting the oil pipelines, but will more-or-less abandon the rest of the country like what happened in Afghanistan.
3) More military adventures. In order of likelihood: Iran (officially on the threat of nuclear weapons), Syria (officially due to accusations of aiding terrorists), North Korea (nuclear weapons), or stepping in to "protect American interests" in a Saudi civil war. The Saudi civil war is becoming less likely as high oil prices have greatly helped to strengthen the Saudi royal family but if anything happens to disrupt Saudi oil production we will have forces there the next day.
4) (3) will mean that the US military will be stretched extremely thin. Forces will be shuffled around from other foreign bases and the "backdoor draft" will be expanded. This will not be sufficient in the long run. Don't be surprised by a true military draft and/or some form of extreme governmental social pressure to sign up.
5) The US will continue to alienate damn near everyone around the globe. This will lead to some form of economic retribution, see the next section.
Economics - The Big One
1) Oil prices will continue to rise. I don't know how far but expect $80+. All other energy prices, as well as most commodities, will hit record highs and stay high.
2) The already record breaking US debt will continue to skyrocket to new levels. The US will attempt to cause dollar devaluation against foreign currencies and will be successful for a while until...
3) Someone, somewhere will start selling oil in something other than American dollars, most likely Russia trading for Euros but possibly Iran with the gold dinar. If it is Iran the US will attack them if it isn't already tangled up with someone else, but my bet is on Russia. Once this happens others will follow suit. This will be the first sign of the upcoming meltdown.
4) Due to (3) foreign countries (primarily China, the EU and maybe Japan) will stop accepting American securities and debt and flood the market with them. This will mean that the US will not be able to sustain its debt, or even go much deeper into it as no one will buy it. Imports will become damn expensive and exporters will not accept credit. The manufacturing sector might be able to recover because of import prices.
5) The housing market will crash. Suburban real estate values will drop like a stone.
6) The airline industry will not be able to survive past 2006 without huge government subsidies.
7) Taxes will be increased to try and pay down the debt and keep the government afloat.
8) The middle class will continue to shrink and the economic divide between the rich and the poor will get even bigger.
9) All of this, plus more, will cause to stock market to crash and lead us into a depression.
Buckle up, it’s going to be one hell of a ride!
RavenDisplayed's Predictions for the Next Four Years:
Domestic Politics and Agendas
1) The Democratic party is going to have to undergo serious soul searching if it wants to remain a force in American politics. It may manage to do this by moving away from the centrist position and over to the left to its old home ground somewhere between the American Socialist party and the European socialists. If it does not it will factionalize and lose large portions of its membership to the Green Party, the American Socialist Party and the Libertarian Party. I'm betting on the later.
2) The neocons currently running the Republicans will see this election as a complete vindication of their policies and a strong mandate to continue with their plans. Of course since they only received about 51% of the popular vote this is a pretty major stretch, but they won't see it as such. Eventually the classical conservatives and the libertarians in the Republican party (particularly the fiscal conservatives) will oppose the neocons (primarily due to events to be discussed in the economics section and later in this section) and may attempt a coup of the Republican party (led by John McCain?) or split to the Libertarian Party and/or a newly revitalized Reform party. This will be much less dramatic than what is going to happen to the Democrats and will probably happen later.
3) Under the direction of John Ashcroft there will be a continued erosion of basic civil rights, most likely something along the lines of a PATRIOT Act II.
4) There is a good chance for Roe v. Wade to be overturned, as their is now the majority in the House and the Senate to slightly change the definition that RvW hangs on.
5) I don't expect an anti gay marriage amendment to happen, but there will be a continuation of other subtle attacks on gay rights.
6) Remember that thing called "Separation of Church and State"? Kiss it goodbye. Fuck you John Ashcroft, fuck you very much. I hope you get hit by an orbital cow launcher.
7) Climate change will be increasingly noticeable and alarming, but there will be nothing more than some slight lip service to real environmental policy change. In the end this will be disastrous but probably not for a couple of decades.
8) ANWR will be opened up due to pressure from high oil prices (see economics), but won't help much, if at all, since there just isn't that much oil there.
Foreign Relations
1) Osama bin Laden and Al-Queda will continue their economic guerilla war against the US. OBL will still not be caught and low scale terrorist actions against the US and US forces abroad will increase costing us big.
2) Iraq - I see two possibilities. The first is that the US military will leave Iraq ASAP after the January elections, in preparations for (3). The more likely scenario is that they will continue to have a strong presence in the oil producing regions and protecting the oil pipelines, but will more-or-less abandon the rest of the country like what happened in Afghanistan.
3) More military adventures. In order of likelihood: Iran (officially on the threat of nuclear weapons), Syria (officially due to accusations of aiding terrorists), North Korea (nuclear weapons), or stepping in to "protect American interests" in a Saudi civil war. The Saudi civil war is becoming less likely as high oil prices have greatly helped to strengthen the Saudi royal family but if anything happens to disrupt Saudi oil production we will have forces there the next day.
4) (3) will mean that the US military will be stretched extremely thin. Forces will be shuffled around from other foreign bases and the "backdoor draft" will be expanded. This will not be sufficient in the long run. Don't be surprised by a true military draft and/or some form of extreme governmental social pressure to sign up.
5) The US will continue to alienate damn near everyone around the globe. This will lead to some form of economic retribution, see the next section.
Economics - The Big One
1) Oil prices will continue to rise. I don't know how far but expect $80+. All other energy prices, as well as most commodities, will hit record highs and stay high.
2) The already record breaking US debt will continue to skyrocket to new levels. The US will attempt to cause dollar devaluation against foreign currencies and will be successful for a while until...
3) Someone, somewhere will start selling oil in something other than American dollars, most likely Russia trading for Euros but possibly Iran with the gold dinar. If it is Iran the US will attack them if it isn't already tangled up with someone else, but my bet is on Russia. Once this happens others will follow suit. This will be the first sign of the upcoming meltdown.
4) Due to (3) foreign countries (primarily China, the EU and maybe Japan) will stop accepting American securities and debt and flood the market with them. This will mean that the US will not be able to sustain its debt, or even go much deeper into it as no one will buy it. Imports will become damn expensive and exporters will not accept credit. The manufacturing sector might be able to recover because of import prices.
5) The housing market will crash. Suburban real estate values will drop like a stone.
6) The airline industry will not be able to survive past 2006 without huge government subsidies.
7) Taxes will be increased to try and pay down the debt and keep the government afloat.
8) The middle class will continue to shrink and the economic divide between the rich and the poor will get even bigger.
9) All of this, plus more, will cause to stock market to crash and lead us into a depression.
Buckle up, it’s going to be one hell of a ride!
