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This time around, I'm not making any direct predictions. The world is too uncertain, we are too near a nodal point to make any. Instead, I will be outlining some of the major issues that we will face. Our response, as individuals, as nations and as a species will determine what our future holds.
Finances - We are in the midst of a major financial crisis. It has many causes, but chief among them are poor assumptions about resource limitations, human behavior and willful ignorance of long term consequences.
Loss of Diplomatic Goodwill - Power centers are shifting, and with them old diplomatic ties are being broken. The US, along with several other nations, has alienated the world, and lost much of its ability to inspire.
Environmental Change - We face not just long termt climate change, but also environmental destruction in places like China and Brazil that directly impact the carrying capacity of the planet
General Resource Depletion - We are starting to bump up against supply limits of several resources such as fresh water, soil nitrogen, and many rare earth elements.
Energy Depletion - In many ways energy depletion underlies all of the other issues. While oil production has not yet peaked, the 2010+-5 time frame still seems most likely. Nat gas peak will likely follow by a decade or two.
This list can be pretty daunting. Civilizations have collapsed and people have been wiped out because they were not able to meet these challenges. But I have hope. For every example of people failing to meet these challenges, there are examples where not only have we met them, but where we have come out better for it.
There are no magic wands to wave that will solve these problems, but they are solvable. It will take work, as individuals, as societies, as nations and as a species, but they can be solved. We won't solve them by sticking our heads in the sand or by blaming others or by expecting someone else to solve them. We must face these problems, admit that we are all responsible for solving them and work together. Will we? I don't know, but we have before.
Finances - We are in the midst of a major financial crisis. It has many causes, but chief among them are poor assumptions about resource limitations, human behavior and willful ignorance of long term consequences.
Loss of Diplomatic Goodwill - Power centers are shifting, and with them old diplomatic ties are being broken. The US, along with several other nations, has alienated the world, and lost much of its ability to inspire.
Environmental Change - We face not just long termt climate change, but also environmental destruction in places like China and Brazil that directly impact the carrying capacity of the planet
General Resource Depletion - We are starting to bump up against supply limits of several resources such as fresh water, soil nitrogen, and many rare earth elements.
Energy Depletion - In many ways energy depletion underlies all of the other issues. While oil production has not yet peaked, the 2010+-5 time frame still seems most likely. Nat gas peak will likely follow by a decade or two.
This list can be pretty daunting. Civilizations have collapsed and people have been wiped out because they were not able to meet these challenges. But I have hope. For every example of people failing to meet these challenges, there are examples where not only have we met them, but where we have come out better for it.
There are no magic wands to wave that will solve these problems, but they are solvable. It will take work, as individuals, as societies, as nations and as a species, but they can be solved. We won't solve them by sticking our heads in the sand or by blaming others or by expecting someone else to solve them. We must face these problems, admit that we are all responsible for solving them and work together. Will we? I don't know, but we have before.